College Football Mid-Season Review

I am the only Texas fan I know who wasn’t outraged at the release of the initial BCS standings, which placed oklahoma at #1.  It is a gut reaction, of course, you never want to see your rival succeed and be ahead of you.  The reason I wasn’t surprised was because I’ve seen this movie before, in fact, the sooners have been ranked #1 in the BCS more weeks than any other school, yet they have only won one National Championship in four tries.  The story goes like this: ou beats Texas in the Red River Shootout, Texas then goes on to finish the season in stellar fashion, boosting the sooners’ rankings, so weirdly enough ou being ranked #1 is a compliment to Texas.

The other reason I’m not upset about oklahoma being ranked #1 is this: Have you seen the Oregon Ducks lately?  Oregon simply looks better than any team in College Football, period.  The Ducks are not just doing it on offense, they are also playing very good defense, and while Stanford is their only ‘major win,’ they still have to face very good teams in Arizona and USC, as well as Oregon State, who pollsters insist is a top team.  Even an undefeated oklahoma will have trouble holding rank over an undefeated Oregon.

Boise State is quickly becoming a victim of their weak schedule, at least in the poll that matters.  The press is going to have a heck of a time justifying ranking a 1-loss Nevada team just so the Broncos have another ranked victory, but they will nonetheless try.

Why is Boise State ranked ahead of TCU?  Right, because they beat them last year, but this is a new season and TCU has played better teams in the Mountain West.  That will change if they beat Utah, who isn’t getting any press love because they sold out and are moving on to the Pac 12.  It’s no surprise TCU is considering a move to the Big East, which makes about as much geographic sense as them being in the Mountain West.  My guess is, if the Big 12 survives, they’ll join the Big 12, but my guess is also that the Big 12 has about 3 more years of life.

I still very much believe Michigan is on the right track and will upset Ohio State this year.  Even in their losses their offense has been amazing, people calling for Rich Rod’s job clearly aren’t remembering what his West Virginia teams were about.  The Big Ten is surprisingly deep this year, but the way Iowa is playing, they will run the table.

Auburn is the biggest surprise in the SEC, well maybe second biggest after what’s happened to the Gators.  Cam Newton is a tremendously talented player, unfortunately, it often seems like he’s the Tigers’ only offensive weapon, his Heisman stock hinges on him being able to keep Auburn undefeated.  Alabama is still the best team in that conference, it will come down to the Iron Bowl to determine the champion.  Thankfully the computers will vault a 1-loss Bama team over Boise, TCU, or Utah.

The ACC and Big East remain nationally irrelevant, which isn’t very surprising.  Florida State looks good one week and lousy the next, but they’re still on track to reclaim the ACC, and boost ou’s ranking while at it.

College Football Predictions – Week 8

• #7 Michigan State -6 at Northwestern – Spartans could be caught looking ahead to Iowa next week, but I doubt it.
• #4 Auburn -6 over #6 LSU – Auburn has proven a tough place to play, and LSU is a team that should have 2 losses.
• #15 Iowa -6 over #13 Wisconsin – The Badgers played great against the Ohio State, but I expect them to be hung over and lose big to Iowa.
• Texas Tech -3 at Colorado – I expect the Red Raiders to give a nice farewell gift to Colorado and win big.
• #11 Missouri +3 over #1 oklahoma – ou’s defense, despite their shutout of Iowa State, isn’t great, I expect Mizzou’s balanced offense to give them trouble.
• #16 Nebraska -6 at #14 Oklahoma State – Nebraska’s defense will contain the Cowboys, and Martinez will bounce back and have a big game.
• Miami -6.5 over North Carolina – UNC’s off field issues will finally catch up to them and the ‘Canes will win big.
• Georgia -4 over Kentucky – The Wildcats beat South Carolina, but Georgia is much improved with AJ Green back, they should cruise on this one.
• Notre Dame -7 at Navy – The Irish are not losing again this season, Navy is not as good as it has been the past couple of years.
• Penn State -9.5 at Minnesota – Minnesota just fired their coach, that usually leads to a big loss.

Pro Football Predictions – Week 7

• Steelers -3 over Dolphins – Pittsburgh is just too good.
• 49ers -3 over Panthers – San Francisco finally got their win, and Carolina will have to wait for theirs.
• Seahawks -6 over Cardinals – Seattle looks better than expected and plays much better at home.
• Bears -3 over Redskins – Cutler will be back in form and Chicago will begin winning again.
• Cowboys -3.5 over Giants – Desperate times call for desperate measures.

UFC 121 Prediction

• Brock Lesnar over Cain Velasquez – He may have survived Carwin, but he will dominate Velasquez.

NBA Predictions – Week 1 (lines not available)

• 10/26 Miami over Boston – No way the Heat start with a loss.
• 10/26 Portland over Phoenix – Trailblazers will be in rare, full health mode, and the Suns begin life after Stoudemire.
• 10/27 Dallas over Charlotte – Homer pick
• 10/27 Denver over Utah – I’m not expecting much out of the Jazz without Boozer.
• 10/28 Orlando over Washington – The Magic will keep up with the Heat until their first matchup… the next day.
• 10/29 Dallas over Memphis – Dirk’s first 40 point game of the season, bank on it!

-Kanan

The Timely Return of His Airness

Legendary Washington Wizards guard Michael Jordan is finally a playable character in a video game, and not a second too late!  I was never a big fan of MJ, to the surprise of no one, but I can appreciate finally being able to play him in this year’s NBA 2K11 because I never could.  Growing up the NBA was second to none, but Basketball games lacked all of the league’s personality by not featuring Jordan (Of course I just wanted the chance to beat MJ).  The lack of a game to extend the fan’s brand engagement, like Madden with Football and FIFA with “Football,” surely played a part in the NBA’s popularity decline.  It’s hard to believe that Jordan is still a relevant figure in a sport whose culture notoriously skews young, and yet he’s still the ultimate ‘get.’ 

I found it amusing how EA (and I like EA) is scrambling to compete against the 2K series, it delayed the release of its game NBA Elite 11 and its now trying to revive NBA Jam.  A few years back EA took 2K out of the Football game business by signing an exclusivity deal with the NFL, and while NBA games will never be the cash cow that Madden is, Karma is still kind of a bitch.  I give this game a solid ‘alright.’

My college picks last week also get a solid ‘alright,’ I went 8 for 13 for 62% picking against the spread, but only went 33.33% picking the pros.  Alabama has been a good team for a while now, but I did not expect them to destroy Florida like they did last week, they’re truly a scary team.  Fortunately my National Championship pick, Oregon, is an equally scary team, any of you AP clowns still want to see Boise State play for the National Title?  I didn’t think so.

College Football Predictions – Week 6

• Baylor +1.5 at Texas Tech – A couple of years ago Baylor came oh so close to upsetting the Red Raiders and sending Texas to the Big XII title game, like most of my wishes this one’s also a few years late.
• #1 Alabama -7.5 at #20 South Carolina – The Gamecocks’ strength is the running game, something Alabama doesn’t have any problems with.
• #18 Stanford -10 over USC – Last week showed that the Trojans have clearly checked out of this season early, Stanford wins big at home to prove they’re still one of the elite teams in the nation.
• #13 Arkansas -6 over texas a&m – I wonder how the crowd will split at Dallas Cowboys stadium, traditionally a sooner stronghold. Hogs are done licking their wounds and are dedicating the rest of their season to gaining a BCS at large.
• #17 Michigan -4.5 over #16 Michigan State – Finally, a spread the Michigan defense can cover!  Robinson is going to run all over the Spartans.
• #12 Florida -6 over #9 LSU – I don’t think the Gators can make enough mistakes for the Tigers to steal another win.
• #25 Northwestern -9 over Purdue – The Wildcats like to keep games close, but without Marve I think a 10 point win over Purdue is doable.
• #8 Auburn -6.5 at Kentucky – Cam Newton is a great athlete, and enough to beat Kentucky by at least a touchdown.
• Iowa State +6 over #10 Utah – Anybody else get the impression that Utah isn’t getting all the Boise and TCU hype because they ‘sold out’ and are moving to the Pac 12?  It’s okay, they’re losing this one anyway.
• #3 Oregon -36.6 at Washington State – Screw it, make it 48!

Pro Football Predictions – Week 5

• Colts -7.5 over Chiefs – Indy is at home, sorry KC.
• Falcons -3 at Browns – A suspiciously easy pick, I wonder if it’s a trap….
• Packers -3 at Redskins – Redskins haven’t won back-to-back and I don’t expect them to start now!
• Raiders +6.5 over Chargers – San Diego is about to get McFaddened!
• Saints -7 at Cardinals – A would be trap game if New Orleans weren’t playing so crappy and Arizona had a starting QB.
• Lions -3 over Rams – I doubt Stafford will play, but Ndamukong Suh will be hunting Bradford all day!
• 49ers -3.5 over Eagles – No Michael Vick means trouble against San Francisco’s D!

-Kanan

Perception is Reality

It’s getting harder and harder to be a fringe sports conspiracy-theorist when the AP makes it so obvious that they won’t rest until a non-BCS team is crowned National Champions, preferably Boise State.  

The inconsistent and fickle nature of the AP pollsters is at its most blatant in their latest poll, in which, as predicted by yours truly, Oregon State is ranked #25.  Why is that odd?  The Beavers did look good in their losing effort against TCU, surely they looked great in their second game… oh wait, they had a bye last week!  Keep an eye on Fresno State, who are being set up to be ranked by the time they travel to Boise in November.

At least the AP is willing to adjust rankings according to on-the-field performance regardless of record, as shown by moving a very-impressive 2-0 Oregon to #5 and dropping 2-0 Florida to #10 after slow starts.  That is commendable, except for the fact that Boise St, who eeked out a win versus Virginia Tech, remained at #3, even after FCS James Madison University defeated the Hokies... IN BLACKSBURG!  Instead they threw votes at James Madison, and rightfully so, the Dukes have 1 more win than the Broncos.  Clearly it is more important than ever that Oregon State is perceived as a big time opponent.

Perception is reality, and that is as true for a College Football team as it is everywhere else.  The sport is absolutely littered with programs that are perceived to be bigger than they actually are.  Teams with accomplished pasts who maintain decent records year-after-year, but are never really National Championship contenders, I call them the Atlantic Coast Conference, and you want them on your schedule to pad the number of ‘quality’ wins.

The ACC is full of Notre Dames!  We just don’t see it because they play each other and none of them actually manages to sink to the bottom.  Think about it: Florida State gets demolished by oklahoma, Miami cannot hang with Ohio State, Georgia Tech gets beat by Kansas!  Virginia Tech’s loss to JMU shattered their team’s perceived quality, something that won’t affect Boise until the BCS polls are released, because the computers can actually see past the ACC aura.

With that in mind, I am finally ready to make my National Championship prediction: Oregon, and a split title if the Ducks don’t play Boise St. or TCU and one of them wins a BCS game (likely against the other).  Winning at Tennessee won’t be Oregon’s marquee win, they have a very challenging Pac-10 schedule ahead that includes going to #25 Oregon State, but it showed that they could win on the road in a very rough environment.  Not so much Rocky Top and the Vols as much as the massive thunderstorms that actually delayed the game.

My predictions did improve drastically last week; I managed to go 7 for 11 against the spread in College Football and 6 of 9 against the spread for the NFL’s opening weekend.  College Football picks definitely made my weekend as I had the distinct pleasure of having 2 of my fantasy teams play against Arian Foster… it still hurts :(

College Football Predictions – Week 3

• Cal -3 at Nevada – Nevada can score in bunches, but so can Cal, who will be looking to showcase their stuff on National TV in this Friday game.
• Kansas St -4 over Iowa St – This game is being played at Arrowhead, not only a neutral field, but a neutral state, the Cyclones were absolutely shut down last week and I don’t expect them to bounce back against a very good K-State team.
• #2 Ohio State -30.5 over Ohio – Another game at home for the Buckeyes?  They’ll do to Ohio the same thing they did to Marshall.
• Maryland +10 at #21 West Virginia – The Mountaineers showed a lot of toughness coming back against Marshall last week, but they also showed a lot of vulnerabilities.  Maryland’s defense will keep them in the game, take the points.
• Georgia -2 over #13 Arkansas – This is a gut call, all signs point to Arkansas and their potent offense, but I think they’ll be looking ahead to Alabama and Georgia will be looking to bounce back from their tough loss at South Carolina.
• USC -12.5 at Minnesota – Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me, but please do not fool me a third time, USC!  Actually this prediction is based more on how bad Minnesota has played.
• Baylor +21.5 at #5 TCU – Before you think this is an emotional pick, it’s not, and I fully expect TCU to win, especially at home.  Baylor is not as anemic as they’re being made out to be, they’ll score enough.
• #4 Texas -3 at Texas Tech – They’re hoping to win, we’re expecting to win.
• Florida State -10 over BYU – The Seminoles will be looking to bounce back from that nasty loss last week; BYU just doesn’t seem as good as last year.
• Notre Dame +3.5 at Michigan St – These games are always close, I expect the Irish to win.
• UTEP -16 over New Mexico St – If Buckram plays, UTEP will win big, if he doesn’t play, they’ll still win by a good margin.
• #15 Auburn -7 over Clemson – There’s no question the Tigers will win this one, hands down!
• #18 Arizona (pick) over #10 Iowa – Iowa won by 10 last year at home, I expect the Wildcats to be looking for revenge at home this year.

Pro Football Predictions – Week 2 

• Packers -14 over Bills – Green Bay is going to light up the scoreboard in their home opener against a much weaker Buffalo team.
• Falcons -7 over Cardinals – Atlanta lost a tough one at Pittsburgh last week, I expect them to bounce back.
• Seahawks +3.5 at Broncos – Seattle looked very good last week against the 49ers and Denver is not as good.
• Titans -5.5 over Steelers – Steelers had a hard time putting the Falcons away last week, Tennessee has the weapons to put them away.
• Chargers -7 over Jaguars – San Diego will be looking to redeem themselves in their home opener.
• Cowboys -7.5 over Bears – Pretty please?
• Texans -3 at Redskins – I don’t think Houston will make as many mistakes as Dallas, the defense that rattled Manning will have fun sacking McNabb.
• Raiders -3.5 over Rams – St. Louis kept it close against the Cards last week, but eventually they lost and Oakland is a better team than Arizona.

-Kanan