How the Heisman was Lost

Cam Newton will not be this season’s Heisman Trophy winner.  It may seem hard to believe given that he is widely considered to be the frontrunner for College Football’s most prestigious award.  Unfortunately for Newton, he must overcome two very difficult obstacles to win the Heisman: he must carry Auburn to an undefeated season, and more importantly, he must be acquitted in the court of public opinion of all wrongdoings during his recruitment from Junior College.

Despite being ranked in both pre-season polls (#22 AP, #23 Coaches) there is no denying that Auburn has been the surprise team of the season, few outside the plains thought they would rise to the verge of a National Championship bid.  There is also little doubt that Cam Newton is responsible for Auburn’s success this year, he means more to his team than any other one player means to his team, the very definition of Most Valuable Player. 

Newton is currently projected well ahead of Boise State’s Kellen Moore and Oregon’s LaMichael James, both of whom are merely considered to be the best players on otherwise still very good teams, in the Heisman race.  Moore, and James to a certain extent, have something Newton doesn’t, and that is victories over their best regular season opponents.  Even though Auburn boasts victories over very good Arkansas and South Carolina teams, their biggest game remains the season-ending Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa.  With today’s prisoner-of-the-moment sports media, it is almost impossible for a player to lose late in the season and still get the votes needed to win the Heisman.  It is not impossible for Auburn to go through the season undefeated, but their most difficult test looms, and off the field distractions will make Auburn’s remaining games significantly more difficult.

Undefeated or not, Newton’s biggest obstacle in the Heisman race will be the allegation that his father sought payment from Mississippi State to get him to commit to the Bulldogs.  Unfortunately the right of ‘Innocent Until Proven Guilty’ is not one that Cam Newton will benefit from, not just because of the recent Reggie Bush incident, but just as importantly because of his own actions.  Newton’s arrest and criminal charges for possession of a stolen laptop while at Florida hurt his personal character.  Allegations of academic cheating during his time as a Gator don’t help either.  Whether it is fair or not, Newton’s previous troubles will make Heisman voters, and the public at large, hesitant to believe Newton’s innocence in any wrongdoings. 

During the 11/11/10 episode of College Football Live on ESPN, the host mentioned that 80% of Heisman voters in the company still plan to vote for Newton.  John Tamanaha of NBC Sports argues that rumors should be left off the Heisman equation when considering Newton.  Both are very noble sentiments, and the right thing to say, however when it comes to player eligibility, a requirement to win the Heisman, allegations and rumors are extremely relevant and deserve consideration, especially when the NCAA and even the FBI have launched investigations.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the Heisman Trust refuses to accept votes for Newton to avoid a future Bush-like embarrassment.

It is a shame because in terms of on-field performance Cam Newton is the best Heisman candidate.  Kellen Moore will likely win the Heisman.  Moore’s Broncos are all but guaranteed another undefeated season, however TCU is next-in-line should Auburn or Oregon lose.  Boise State will likely not be invited to play for the National Championship and the sports media will give the Heisman to Moore as consolation.  In the case they do end up playing for the National Championship, the sports media will blitz them with awards, including a Heisman Trophy for Moore.  LaMichael James, for all his amazing talent, will continue to be perceived as a cog in the very powerful machine that is Oregon’s offense.  Fortunately for James nothing cures a Heisman snub like a National Championship.

College Football Predictions - Week 11

Pro Football Predictions - Week 10

NBA Predictions - Week 4 (Lines Not Available)

Boxing Prediction

-Kanan

How Strong is the SEC?

I don’t think Boise State deserves to play in the National Championship game, and frankly I’m not too comfortable with the idea of TCU doing so, though I prefer them over Boise.  This is the fight I’ve been preparing for since the pre-season rankings were released, and now consensus in the sports media (led by ESPN) is that a WAC or MWC schedule has nothing to do with whether a team deserves to play for the Championship.  Arguing that the quality of a College Football team is not dependent on the quality of it’s conference is not only wrong, but it also contradicts the idea that SEC teams merit special considerations because of their schedule.

For years now there seems to be only one thing that College Football analysts and commentators unanimously agree on: the Southeastern Conference is hands down the premier conference in College Football.  That belief went as far as to vault a 2-loss LSU team from #7 to #2 and into the BCS Title Game after winning the SEC Championship against an unranked Tennessee team.  As of right now there are three SEC teams in the Top 10, however the likelihood of an undefeated team coming out of the SEC is slim; only Auburn remains unbeaten with a trip to Alabama still on their schedule. 

If the SEC is indeed the best conference then it follows that a win versus an SEC opponent carries more significance than a win versus a WAC or MWC team. The idea of equality is nice, but not all wins are created equal, and that is what fuels rankings, both human and computer.  Yet the sports media insists on measuring teams based on the 'eyeball' test!  

I don’t believe the SEC is the best conference this season, my pick is the Pac-10, but it is a toss-up for second best conference between the Big Ten and SEC.  An SEC win should remain more valuable than than a WAC win.

Saying that a team like Boise State deserves to play for the National Championship regardless of their schedule, after years of insisting on the idea of the SEC’s superiority, makes about as much sense as “Keep Your Government Hands Off My Medicare!”

College Football Predictions – Week 10

Pro Football Predictions – Week 9

NBA Predictions – Week 3 (Lines Not Available)

Boxing

-Kanan

What is Ailing the Longhorns?

With the Longhorns third loss of the season, and second at home to a double digit unranked opponent, things are looking pretty bleak in Austin this year.  The problem is pretty obvious: the offense isn’t scoring any points, and root cause is Greg Davis’s system, or lack thereof. 

Given that Texas routinely recruits some of the top talent in the state, rebuilding years should still be fairly successful, and they are, many programs would kill for a 3-loss season.  Texas recruits great players, but great players aren’t always the right players.  The trend, however, has been to recruit the best player available and mold the offense around their talent, and that is a symptom of not having a system guiding recruiting needs.

Cedric Golden wrote on Statesman.com that the Longhorns should return to what they do best: the spread.  I agree.  The problem is that the success of the Texas spread offense was predicated by very (in Young’s case extremely) athletic quarterbacks, and as of right now, Garret Gilbert is not that kind of QB.  He is tremendously talented, and in time he could develop into a great spread QB, but right now he seems like Chris Simms 2.0.  Meanwhile, Darron Thomas, a less touted recruit from Houston, is near-flawlessly running a high octane spread in Oregon, he would have been a great candidate to run a Texas spread system, if Texas was committed to an offensive system.

Greg Davis appears to have no system in place and because of that Texas cannot recruit players that fit into an established offensive scheme.  Texas ran the spread quite successfully from late 2004 through 2009, so that can be considered a ‘system,’ but it is easy to forget that early in Vince Young’s career he was forced into the same run-first pro-style offense ran by Applewhite, Simms, and Mock before moving to the zone-read spread.  To their credit, Texas did aggressively recruit Ryan Perrilloux, a great fit to continue running the Young’s offense, but seemingly gave up pursing that kind of player once he chose LSU over Texas.

Putting more emphasis on the running game is actually a great idea, but the right players were not in place this season, that is why a return to the spread is needed to salvage this season.  Even if Gilbert is not an ideal spread QB, the Texas running backs have the necessary speed.  Ironically enough, Texas’s top incoming recruit, Malcolm Brown, looks to be the stud running back needed this year.

It is the inconsistency that is the most frustrating!  I know Davis isn’t going anywhere as long as Mack Brown is coaching, so I won’t call for his firing.  Unfortunately, as long as there is no established scheme on offense Texas will continue to go through frustrating transition seasons while the offense adapts itself to its talent.  Call me crazy, but I think it should work the other way around.

College Football Predictions – Week 9

Pro Football Predictions – Week 8

NBA Predictions – Week 2

-Kanan

College Football Mid-Season Review

I am the only Texas fan I know who wasn’t outraged at the release of the initial BCS standings, which placed oklahoma at #1.  It is a gut reaction, of course, you never want to see your rival succeed and be ahead of you.  The reason I wasn’t surprised was because I’ve seen this movie before, in fact, the sooners have been ranked #1 in the BCS more weeks than any other school, yet they have only won one National Championship in four tries.  The story goes like this: ou beats Texas in the Red River Shootout, Texas then goes on to finish the season in stellar fashion, boosting the sooners’ rankings, so weirdly enough ou being ranked #1 is a compliment to Texas.

The other reason I’m not upset about oklahoma being ranked #1 is this: Have you seen the Oregon Ducks lately?  Oregon simply looks better than any team in College Football, period.  The Ducks are not just doing it on offense, they are also playing very good defense, and while Stanford is their only ‘major win,’ they still have to face very good teams in Arizona and USC, as well as Oregon State, who pollsters insist is a top team.  Even an undefeated oklahoma will have trouble holding rank over an undefeated Oregon.

Boise State is quickly becoming a victim of their weak schedule, at least in the poll that matters.  The press is going to have a heck of a time justifying ranking a 1-loss Nevada team just so the Broncos have another ranked victory, but they will nonetheless try.

Why is Boise State ranked ahead of TCU?  Right, because they beat them last year, but this is a new season and TCU has played better teams in the Mountain West.  That will change if they beat Utah, who isn’t getting any press love because they sold out and are moving on to the Pac 12.  It’s no surprise TCU is considering a move to the Big East, which makes about as much geographic sense as them being in the Mountain West.  My guess is, if the Big 12 survives, they’ll join the Big 12, but my guess is also that the Big 12 has about 3 more years of life.

I still very much believe Michigan is on the right track and will upset Ohio State this year.  Even in their losses their offense has been amazing, people calling for Rich Rod’s job clearly aren’t remembering what his West Virginia teams were about.  The Big Ten is surprisingly deep this year, but the way Iowa is playing, they will run the table.

Auburn is the biggest surprise in the SEC, well maybe second biggest after what’s happened to the Gators.  Cam Newton is a tremendously talented player, unfortunately, it often seems like he’s the Tigers’ only offensive weapon, his Heisman stock hinges on him being able to keep Auburn undefeated.  Alabama is still the best team in that conference, it will come down to the Iron Bowl to determine the champion.  Thankfully the computers will vault a 1-loss Bama team over Boise, TCU, or Utah.

The ACC and Big East remain nationally irrelevant, which isn’t very surprising.  Florida State looks good one week and lousy the next, but they’re still on track to reclaim the ACC, and boost ou’s ranking while at it.

College Football Predictions – Week 8

• #7 Michigan State -6 at Northwestern – Spartans could be caught looking ahead to Iowa next week, but I doubt it.
• #4 Auburn -6 over #6 LSU – Auburn has proven a tough place to play, and LSU is a team that should have 2 losses.
• #15 Iowa -6 over #13 Wisconsin – The Badgers played great against the Ohio State, but I expect them to be hung over and lose big to Iowa.
• Texas Tech -3 at Colorado – I expect the Red Raiders to give a nice farewell gift to Colorado and win big.
• #11 Missouri +3 over #1 oklahoma – ou’s defense, despite their shutout of Iowa State, isn’t great, I expect Mizzou’s balanced offense to give them trouble.
• #16 Nebraska -6 at #14 Oklahoma State – Nebraska’s defense will contain the Cowboys, and Martinez will bounce back and have a big game.
• Miami -6.5 over North Carolina – UNC’s off field issues will finally catch up to them and the ‘Canes will win big.
• Georgia -4 over Kentucky – The Wildcats beat South Carolina, but Georgia is much improved with AJ Green back, they should cruise on this one.
• Notre Dame -7 at Navy – The Irish are not losing again this season, Navy is not as good as it has been the past couple of years.
• Penn State -9.5 at Minnesota – Minnesota just fired their coach, that usually leads to a big loss.

Pro Football Predictions – Week 7

• Steelers -3 over Dolphins – Pittsburgh is just too good.
• 49ers -3 over Panthers – San Francisco finally got their win, and Carolina will have to wait for theirs.
• Seahawks -6 over Cardinals – Seattle looks better than expected and plays much better at home.
• Bears -3 over Redskins – Cutler will be back in form and Chicago will begin winning again.
• Cowboys -3.5 over Giants – Desperate times call for desperate measures.

UFC 121 Prediction

• Brock Lesnar over Cain Velasquez – He may have survived Carwin, but he will dominate Velasquez.

NBA Predictions – Week 1 (lines not available)

• 10/26 Miami over Boston – No way the Heat start with a loss.
• 10/26 Portland over Phoenix – Trailblazers will be in rare, full health mode, and the Suns begin life after Stoudemire.
• 10/27 Dallas over Charlotte – Homer pick
• 10/27 Denver over Utah – I’m not expecting much out of the Jazz without Boozer.
• 10/28 Orlando over Washington – The Magic will keep up with the Heat until their first matchup… the next day.
• 10/29 Dallas over Memphis – Dirk’s first 40 point game of the season, bank on it!

-Kanan