Friday, October 29, 2010

What is Ailing the Longhorns?

With the Longhorns third loss of the season, and second at home to a double digit unranked opponent, things are looking pretty bleak in Austin this year.  The problem is pretty obvious: the offense isn’t scoring any points, and root cause is Greg Davis’s system, or lack thereof. 
Given that Texas routinely recruits some of the top talent in the state, rebuilding years should still be fairly successful, and they are, many programs would kill for a 3-loss season.  Texas recruits great players, but great players aren’t always the right players.  The trend, however, has been to recruit the best player available and mold the offense around their talent, and that is a symptom of not having a system guiding recruiting needs.
Cedric Golden wrote on Statesman.com that the Longhorns should return to what they do best: the spread.  I agree.  The problem is that the success of the Texas spread offense was predicated by very (in Young’s case extremely) athletic quarterbacks, and as of right now, Garret Gilbert is not that kind of QB.  He is tremendously talented, and in time he could develop into a great spread QB, but right now he seems like Chris Simms 2.0.  Meanwhile, Darron Thomas, a less touted recruit from Houston, is near-flawlessly running a high octane spread in Oregon, he would have been a great candidate to run a Texas spread system, if Texas was committed to an offensive system.
Greg Davis appears to have no system in place and because of that Texas cannot recruit players that fit into an established offensive scheme.  Texas ran the spread quite successfully from late 2004 through 2009, so that can be considered a ‘system,’ but it is easy to forget that early in Vince Young’s career he was forced into the same run-first pro-style offense ran by Applewhite, Simms, and Mock before moving to the zone-read spread.  To their credit, Texas did aggressively recruit Ryan Perrilloux, a great fit to continue running the Young’s offense, but seemingly gave up pursing that kind of player once he chose LSU over Texas.
Putting more emphasis on the running game is actually a great idea, but the right players were not in place this season, that is why a return to the spread is needed to salvage this season.  Even if Gilbert is not an ideal spread QB, the Texas running backs have the necessary speed.  Ironically enough, Texas’s top incoming recruit, Malcolm Brown, looks to be the stud running back needed this year.
It is the inconsistency that is the most frustrating!  I know Davis isn’t going anywhere as long as Mack Brown is coaching, so I won’t call for his firing.  Unfortunately, as long as there is no established scheme on offense Texas will continue to go through frustrating transition seasons while the offense adapts itself to its talent.  Call me crazy, but I think it should work the other way around.
College Football Predictions – Week 9


Pro Football Predictions – Week 8

NBA Predictions – Week 2

-Kanan

Friday, October 22, 2010

College Football Mid-Season Review

I am the only Texas fan I know who wasn’t outraged at the release of the initial BCS standings, which placed oklahoma at #1.  It is a gut reaction, of course, you never want to see your rival succeed and be ahead of you.  The reason I wasn’t surprised was because I’ve seen this movie before, in fact, the sooners have been ranked #1 in the BCS more weeks than any other school, yet they have only won one National Championship in four tries.  The story goes like this: ou beats Texas in the Red River Shootout, Texas then goes on to finish the season in stellar fashion, boosting the sooners’ rankings, so weirdly enough ou being ranked #1 is a compliment to Texas.
The other reason I’m not upset about oklahoma being ranked #1 is this: Have you seen the Oregon Ducks lately?  Oregon simply looks better than any team in College Football, period.  The Ducks are not just doing it on offense, they are also playing very good defense, and while Stanford is their only ‘major win,’ they still have to face very good teams in Arizona and USC, as well as Oregon State, who pollsters insist is a top team.  Even an undefeated oklahoma will have trouble holding rank over an undefeated Oregon.
Boise State is quickly becoming a victim of their weak schedule, at least in the poll that matters.  The press is going to have a heck of a time justifying ranking a 1-loss Nevada team just so the Broncos have another ranked victory, but they will nonetheless try.
Why is Boise State ranked ahead of TCU?  Right, because they beat them last year, but this is a new season and TCU has played better teams in the Mountain West.  That will change if they beat Utah, who isn’t getting any press love because they sold out and are moving on to the Pac 12.  It’s no surprise TCU is considering a move to the Big East, which makes about as much geographic sense as them being in the Mountain West.  My guess is, if the Big 12 survives, they’ll join the Big 12, but my guess is also that the Big 12 has about 3 more years of life.
I still very much believe Michigan is on the right track and will upset Ohio State this year.  Even in their losses their offense has been amazing, people calling for Rich Rod’s job clearly aren’t remembering what his West Virginia teams were about.  The Big Ten is surprisingly deep this year, but the way Iowa is playing, they will run the table.
Auburn is the biggest surprise in the SEC, well maybe second biggest after what’s happened to the Gators.  Cam Newton is a tremendously talented player, unfortunately, it often seems like he’s the Tigers’ only offensive weapon, his Heisman stock hinges on him being able to keep Auburn undefeated.  Alabama is still the best team in that conference, it will come down to the Iron Bowl to determine the champion.  Thankfully the computers will vault a 1-loss Bama team over Boise, TCU, or Utah.
The ACC and Big East remain nationally irrelevant, which isn’t very surprising.  Florida State looks good one week and lousy the next, but they’re still on track to reclaim the ACC, and boost ou’s ranking while at it.
College Football Predictions – Week 8
  • #7 Michigan State -6 at Northwestern – Spartans could be caught looking ahead to Iowa next week, but I doubt it.
  • #4 Auburn -6 over #6 LSU – Auburn has proven a tough place to play, and LSU is a team that should have 2 losses.
  • #15 Iowa -6 over #13 Wisconsin – The Badgers played great against the Ohio State, but I expect them to be hung over and lose big to Iowa.
  • Texas Tech -3 at Colorado – I expect the Red Raiders to give a nice farewell gift to Colorado and win big.
  • #11 Missouri +3 over #1 oklahoma – ou’s defense, despite their shutout of Iowa State, isn’t great, I expect Mizzou’s balanced offense to give them trouble.
  • #16 Nebraska -6 at #14 Oklahoma State – Nebraska’s defense will contain the Cowboys, and Martinez will bounce back and have a big game.
  • Miami -6.5 over North Carolina – UNC’s off field issues will finally catch up to them and the ‘Canes will win big.
  • Georgia -4 over Kentucky – The Wildcats beat South Carolina, but Georgia is much improved with AJ Green back, they should cruise on this one.
  • Notre Dame -7 at Navy – The Irish are not losing again this season, Navy is not as good as it has been the past couple of years.
  • Penn State -9.5 at Minnesota – Minnesota just fired their coach, that usually leads to a big loss.
Pro Football Predictions – Week 7
  • Steelers -3 over Dolphins – Pittsburgh is just too good.
  • 49ers -3 over Panthers – San Francisco finally got their win, and Carolina will have to wait for theirs.
  • Seahawks -6 over Cardinals – Seattle looks better than expected and plays much better at home.
  • Bears -3 over Redskins – Cutler will be back in form and Chicago will begin winning again.
  • Cowboys -3.5 over Giants – Desperate times call for desperate measures.
UFC 121 Prediction
  • Brock Lesnar over Cain Velasquez – He may have survived Carwin, but he will dominate Velasquez.
NBA Predictions – Week 1 (lines not available)
  • 10/26 Miami over Boston – No way the Heat start with a loss.
  • 10/26 Portland over Phoenix – Trailblazers will be in rare, full health mode, and the Suns begin life after Stoudemire.
  • 10/27 Dallas over Charlotte – Homer pick
  • 10/27 Denver over Utah – I’m not expecting much out of the Jazz without Boozer.
  • 10/28 Orlando over Washington – The Magic will keep up with the Heat until their first matchup… the next day.
  • 10/29 Dallas over Memphis – Dirk’s first 40 point game of the season, bank on it!
-Kanan

Friday, October 15, 2010

Why We Shouldn't Pay College Athletes

One of the biggest stories in sports this week was a Sports Illustrated article in which former football agent Josh Luchs revealed in detail how he paid many College Football players while they were still in school.  After the Reggie Bush scandal, it was widely assumed that this practice was prevalent and Bush had simply gotten caught, the article, with its list of names and corroborated stories, validated that assumption.  As a fan I’m hoping the spotlight on this problem will lead to more vigilance and tighter enforcement of the rules from schools, conferences, and the NCAA.
One popular “solution” to this problem is that schools should pay College Football players, especially since they make money from them.  This doesn’t just undermine the spirit that college athletes are amateurs playing for the love of the game; it more importantly undervalues a college education.  The plight of the student athlete is one I’ll never have the fortune of knowing first hand, but it isn’t difficult to see that the needs of athletes on scholarship are met well beyond paying for tuition. 
Scholarship athletes are exactly that, on scholarship, the cost of a player’s education is in fact the payment that they receive in exchange for their efforts on the playing field.  It is difficult to measure the value of a college degree, but my starting salary out of college was higher than the sum cost of my four year education.  I was fortunate, of course, but the value of your education is what you make it to be, and paying players would simply confirm to them that they are at the school to play, not to learn.  Some athletes have what it takes to go pro and make millions, and you can see them treat academics lightly, but consider last year’s Heisman runner up Toby Gerhart, he earned a degree in management sciences and engineering, from STANFORD!  Toby was also drafted by the Minnesota Vikings and is just waiting for Adrian Peterson’s overdue injury to become a featured running back.
Nobody will argue that balancing academics with athletic obligations is easy, these are two draining commitments and players are not above being overwhelmed.  Those who argue for paying players point out that it is ridiculous to expect student athletes to add a job on top of their commitments, and it is, but the resources available to scholarship athletes are not limited to paying tuition.  Consider the importance of nutrition for athletes, their meals are obviously provided by their programs.  Housing is not an issue, books are covered, and athletes don’t exactly have trouble finding dates, the college essentials are provided.
Some athletes, and I don’t want to get into a socioeconomic discussion, do come from low income families and do bear a financial burden.  This important need is not covered by their scholarships, and it is the key argument for paying players.  There is no straightforward answer to money problems, but I believe there are ways to obtain short-term relief without breaking the rules and jeopardizing your school: student loans are an option, offseason part-time employment is another, or simply capitalizing on your athletic gifts as soon as professional leagues will allow.  The high profile cases, Reggie Bush and those mentioned in the SI article, don’t seem to be need based cases, but rather players looking to maintain a celebrity lifestyle.
I believe hard work in the classroom or on the field, but preferably both, will eventually pay itself off with a lucrative career on or off the field, but preferably both.
College Football Predictions – Week 7
  • Illinois +7.5 at #11 Michigan St – The Illini were very impressive last week, and I have a feeling Sparty is still hungover from last week’s big win.
  • Pittsburgh +1 at Syracuse – Pitt has some tough losses, but they still have the talent that had them ranked earlier in the season.
  • North Carolina State -7.5 at East Carolina – The Wolfpack looks pretty impressive, this is an opportunity to become bowl eligible.
  • #14 Iowa -3.5 at #24 Michigan – Iowa is back to form from their tough loss at Arizona, their defense is good enough to contain Robinson.
  • #13 Arkansas +3.5 at #7 Auburn – This will be a close game so I’m taking the points.
  • UTEP +2.5 at UAB – Oddsmakers don’t have a lot of faith in the Miners outside of the Sun Bowl, but I still think they’re on a mission to win Conference USA now that Houston is out of contention.
  • #12 South Carolina -5 at Kentucky – No hangover here, the Gamecocks already experienced a tough loss on the road, they’ll be ready.
  • #22 Florida -7.5 over Miss St – I just don’t think Urban Meyer will lose 3 in a row and back-to-back at home.
  • Baylor -1.5 at Colorado – The Bears lost a tough one last week, but Colorado doesn’t have the firepower that Texas Tech does.
  • #1 Ohio State -4 at #16 Wisconsin – I’m sure the Buckeyes won’t let themselves be ambushed like Alabama.
  • Notre Dame -24 over Western Michigan – The Irish are actually pretty darn good, their offense is looking forward to finally putting up some points.
  • USC -2 over Cal – I like the Trojans to win in a shootout.
  • Miami -19.5 at Duke – Perfect bounce-back game for the ‘Canes!
  • #17 Florida State -21.5 over Boston College – BC has had a rough season so far, and the Seminoles will be looking to win big.
  • #18 OK State +3 at Texas Tech – The home team has won the last 8 meetings between these two, time to break that streak.
Pro Football Predictions – Week 6
  • Texans -4.5 over Chiefs – Houston lost big last week and this is actually a must win for them.
  • Bears -7 over Seahawks – Jay Cutler will be back and the Seahawks are no good on the road.
  • Saints -4.5 at Bucs – Bounce back game for New Orleans.
  • Broncos +3 over Jets – Gut pick, Denver is very good at home.
  • Titans -3 at Jaguars – VY on MNF FTW!!!!
-Kanan

Friday, October 8, 2010

The Timely Return of His Airness

Legendary Washington Wizards guard Michael Jordan is finally a playable character in a video game, and not a second too late!  I was never a big fan of MJ, to the surprise of no one, but I can appreciate finally being able to play him in this year’s NBA 2K11 because I never could.  Growing up the NBA was second to none, but Basketball games lacked all of the league’s personality by not featuring Jordan (Of course I just wanted the chance to beat MJ).  The lack of a game to extend the fan’s brand engagement, like Madden with Football and FIFA with “Football,” surely played a part in the NBA’s popularity decline.  It’s hard to believe that Jordan is still a relevant figure in a sport whose culture notoriously skews young, and yet he’s still the ultimate ‘get.’ 
I found it amusing how EA (and I like EA) is scrambling to compete against the 2K series, it delayed the release of its game NBA Elite 11 and its now trying to revive NBA Jam.  A few years back EA took 2K out of the Football game business by signing an exclusivity deal with the NFL, and while NBA games will never be the cash cow that Madden is, Karma is still kind of a bitch.  I give this game a solid ‘alright.’
My college picks last week also get a solid ‘alright,’ I went 8 for 13 for 62% picking against the spread, but only went 33.33% picking the pros.  Alabama has been a good team for a while now, but I did not expect them to destroy Florida like they did last week, they’re truly a scary team.  Fortunately my National Championship pick, Oregon, is an equally scary team, any of you AP clowns still want to see Boise State play for the National Title?  I didn’t think so.
College Football Predictions – Week 6
  • Baylor +1.5 at Texas Tech – A couple of years ago Baylor came oh so close to upsetting the Red Raiders and sending Texas to the Big XII title game, like most of my wishes this one’s also a few years late.
  • #1 Alabama -7.5 at #20 South Carolina – The Gamecocks’ strength is the running game, something Alabama doesn’t have any problems with.
  • #18 Stanford -10 over USC – Last week showed that the Trojans have clearly checked out of this season early, Stanford wins big at home to prove they’re still one of the elite teams in the nation.
  • #13 Arkansas -6 over texas a&m – I wonder how the crowd will split at Dallas Cowboys stadium, traditionally a sooner stronghold. Hogs are done licking their wounds and are dedicating the rest of their season to gaining a BCS at large.
  • #17 Michigan -4.5 over #16 Michigan State – Finally, a spread the Michigan defense can cover!  Robinson is going to run all over the Spartans.
  • #12 Florida -6 over #9 LSU – I don’t think the Gators can make enough mistakes for the Tigers to steal another win.
  • #25 Northwestern -9 over Purdue – The Wildcats like to keep games close, but without Marve I think a 10 point win over Purdue is doable.
  • #8 Auburn -6.5 at Kentucky – Cam Newton is a great athlete, and enough to beat Kentucky by at least a touchdown.
  • Iowa State +6 over #10 Utah – Anybody else get the impression that Utah isn’t getting all the Boise and TCU hype because they ‘sold out’ and are moving to the Pac 12?  It’s okay, they’re losing this one anyway.
  • #3 Oregon -36.6 at Washington State – Screw it, make it 48!
Pro Football Predictions – Week 5
  • Colts -7.5 over Chiefs – Indy is at home, sorry KC.
  • Falcons -3 at Browns – A suspiciously easy pick, I wonder if it’s a trap….
  • Packers -3 at Redskins – Redskins haven’t won back-to-back and I don’t expect them to start now!
  • Raiders +6.5 over Chargers – San Diego is about to get McFaddened!
  • Saints -7 at Cardinals – A would be trap game if New Orleans weren’t playing so crappy and Arizona had a starting QB.
  • Lions -3 over Rams – I doubt Stafford will play, but Ndamukong Suh will be hunting Bradford all day!
  • 49ers -3.5 over Eagles – No Michael Vick means trouble against San Francisco’s D!
-Kanan

Friday, October 1, 2010

Getting Over It

A great majority of my friends are Texas Longhorn fans, and a good portion of that are also Houston Texans fans, and their collective reactions, i.e. their facebook posts, reacting to last week’s losses reminded me of an important lesson I’ve learned through my years as a fan: learn to live with your losses.  A loss is supposed to hurt, that is what makes winning feel so great, there is no virtue in the ‘we-lost-but-we-are-still-the-better-team’ attitude. 
That’s not to say I don’t understand, when your team loses you go through a (hopefully) light version of the grief process, and you’re probably the loudest during anger and denial.  Of course, it may be harder to move on because, again hopefully, this is one of the few grief situations where others will actually tease you about your loss and rub it in.
The thing is: head-to-head outcomes are the definitive way of establishing superiority (with the exception of pro teams throwing wins while resting their starters), and it’s easy to forget that because in football, particularly college, we have to rely on indirect measures.  This, by the way, is the most valid argument for a college football system, which I still oppose.  The point being that when UCLA beats Texas, well they’re better and they have tangible proof.  The bigger point is that the Cowboys beat the Texans, so suck it!
Speaking of sucking, last week’s predictions were pretty atrocious!  I got 9 out of 26 picking against the spread in College football, a measly 34% is what I deserve for being greedy and picking so many games.  Pro Football predictions were a little better, 6 of 11 putting me at 54% for the week.
College Football Predictions – Week 5
  • BYU -4.5 at Utah State – Utah St started the season promisingly but has lost their last two games pretty easily, the Cougars haven’t looked great this year, but they have faced much tougher opponents.
  • #17 Miami -3 at Clemson – Clemson is coming off a tough loss and a bye week, but Miami will be looking to avenge last year’s loss at home, I also like the Canes coming off a long week.
  • Baylor -9.5 over Kansas – KU has been unpredictable this season, but this game is more about Baylor trying to prove themselves at home in their Big 12 opener.
  • #2 Ohio State -17.5 at Illinois – I think the Buckeyes know they have to get lots of style points whenever they can because the teams below them are also blowing teams out.
  • #21 Michigan State +2 over #9 Wisconsin – The Badgers have not looked very good this year, don’t let last week’s blowout win over FCS Austin Peay fool you, the Spartans are at home and extra motivated with Dantonio’s first game back.
  • #19 Michigan -10.5 at Indiana – This is a statement game for the Wolverines, that statement being they can win in the Big Ten and they won’t fall off like last year.
  • Georgia -5.5 at Colorado – AJ Green is finally eligible to play, Georgia will be playing for their season.
  • Florida State -7 at Virginia – Virginia is 2-1, and their two wins have come against FCS schools, FSU by 2 TDs.
  • Notre Dame -3 at Boston College – I’d hate to reward losing, but the Irish will be looking to take out their frustrations on the hapless Eagles.
  • Tennessee +16.5 at #10 LSU – LSU’s defense is tough, but their offense doesn’t score enough to give that many points, even at home.
  • #18 Iowa -7 over #20 Penn State – The Hawkeyes will be looking to show that they are big time Big Ten contenders.
  • #7 Florida +8 at #1 Alabama – The Gators defense is fast enough to keep Ingram and Richardson in check, this is gonna be a close game.
  • #4 Oregon -7 over #13 Stanford – The Autzen Zoo is gonna rattle Stanford and force a few mistakes that will allow the Ducks to pull away in the 4th quarter.
Pro Football Predictions – Week 4
  • Titans -7 over Broncos – The Titans showed last week that they’re contenders winning big in New York.
  • Bengals -3 at Browns – Cincy will finally live up to their offensive potential.
  • Seahawks -1.5 at Rams – Seattle sees the NFC West is up for the taking, this is actually a huge game for them.
  • Jets -6 at Bills – Buffalo played New England tough at home last week, but the Jets will overwhelm them with their running attack.
  • Eagles -6 over Redskins – McNabb doesn’t have the weapons to make a statement against Vickadelphia.
  • Giants -4 over Bears – Somehow this is a must win for the Giants.